Plurk paste

NOTES
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2. Antony Beevor, The Second World War (Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2012), 155, 237, 514; Michael J. McNerney et al., “National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t,” RAND Corporation, September 20, 2018, www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2477.html, 40, 44, 46–47.
3. Martin Gilbert, The Second World War (Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1989), 1.
4. Henry Mance, “Steven Pinker: ‘Putin’s Invasion Won’t Lead to a Return to the Age of Warring Civilisation,’” Financial Times, October 23, 2022, www.ft.com/content/4a6ac655-66a9-4d1c8646-9ab32c36fbe2; Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: The Decline of Violence in History and Its Causes (Allen Lane, 2011); Margaret MacMillan, War: How Conflict Shaped Us (Profile Books, 2020), 2–3, 18–19; Lawrence Freedman, The Future of War: A History (Allen Lane, 2017), xi–xv.
5. MacMillan, War, 244, 246.
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7. Alexander Palmer, Henry H. Carroll, and Nicholas Velazquez, “Unpacking China’s Naval Buildup,” June 5, 2024, www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-chinas-naval-buildup. The human has been central to Chinese military modernization, e.g., Dennis J. Blasko, The Chinese Army Today: Tradition and Transformation for the 21st Century, second edition (Routledge, 2012), 16–18.
8. Richard Baldwin, “China Is the World’s Sole Manufacturing Superpower: A Line Sketch of the Rise,” VoxEU, January 17, 2024, https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/china-worlds-solemanufacturing-superpo wer-line-sketch-rise.
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7. Such classic definitions work well for vertebrates. Like all definitions that matter, fascinating debates arise from fuzzy cases around its edges.
See, e.g., Ricard Solé, Melanie Moses, and Stephanie Forrest, “Liquid Brains, Solid Brains,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 374, no. 1774 (April 22, 2019), doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0040.
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15. May, 7; Jackson, 149; Andrew Marr, The Making of Modern Britain (Pan Publishing, 2009), 346–48.
16. Beevor, 29, 39.
17. Gilbert, The Second World War, 54.
18. Peter Andreas, “How Methamphetamine Became a Key Part of Nazi Military Strategy,” Time, January 7, 2020, https://time.com/5752114/nazi-military-drugs/; Megan Garber, “‘Pilot’s Salt’: The Third Reich Kept Its Soldiers Alert With Meth,” The Atlantic (blog), May 31, 2013, https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/05/pilots-salt-the-thi rd-reich-kept-itssoldiers-alert-with-meth/276429/.
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41. Serotonin has many complicated effects in the brain, and thus although good evidence links serotonin to depression and anxiety those links are not simple. See B. U. Phillips and Trevor W.
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67. Kirsten Johnson et al., “Association of Combatant Status and Sexual Violence with Health and Mental Health Outcomes in Postconflict Liberia,” JAMA 300, no. 6 (August 13, 2008): 676–90, doi.org/10.1001/jama.300.6.676.
68. Jean D. Wilson and Claus Roehrborn, “Long-Term Consequences of Castration in Men: Lessons from the Skoptzy and the Eunuchs of the Chinese and Ottoman Courts,” The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism 84, no. 12 (December 1, 1999): 4324–31, https://academic.oup.com/jcem/article/84/12/4324/2864451. 69. Peter Beaumont, “Video Appears to Show Russian Soldier Castrating Ukrainian Prisoner,” The Guardian, July 29, 2022, www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/29/video-appears-to-showrussian-s oldier-castrating-ukrainian-prisoner.
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3: STAND AND FIGHT?
1. My great-uncle was Sydney Spiers. The recommendation for his Military Cross is available at the United Kingdom National Archives (www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/).
2. Justin S. Feinstein et al., “The Human Amygdala and the Induction and Experience of Fear,” Current Biology 21, no. 1 (January 11, 2011): 34–38, doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2010.11.042.
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4. Ralph M. Kaufman, “‘Ill Health’ as an Expression of Anxiety in a Combat Unit,” Psychosomatic Medicine 9, no. 2 (March 1947): 104, doi.org/10.1097?00006842-194703000-00004.
5. Definitions of mental illnesses, and how they are applied, change markedly over time and between different populations. But the main points are illustrated by data on prevalence of anxiety disorders from Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network, Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), 2024.
You can explore this yourself with data from 1990–2021 at “Anxiety Disorders Prevalence vs.
GDP per Capita,” Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/anxiety-disordersprevalence-vs-gdp, accessed November 25, 2024.
6. David Forbes et al., “Treatment of Military-Related Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder: Challenges, Innovations, and the Way Forward,” International Review of Psychiatry 31, no. 1 (January 2, 2019): 95–110, doi.org/10.1080/09540261.2019.1595545; Chen Xue et al., “A Meta-Analysis of Risk Factors for Combat-Related PTSD Among Military Personnel and Veterans,” PLOS ONE 10, no. 3 (March 20, 2015): e0120270, doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0120270.
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15. Xiaobing Li, ed., China at War: An Encyclopedia, illustrated edition (ABC-CLIO, 2012), xxviii.
16. Spence, The Search for Modern China, 262–63, 307, 310–27; Beevor, 64.
17. For Mao’s early life, see Spence, The Search for Modern China, 262; on the founding of the Communist Party, see Spence, The Search for Modern China, 298; Jonathan D. Spence, Mao Zedong (Viking, 1999), 56–58.
18. Xiaobing Li, xxix.
19. Xiaobing Li, xxx.
20. Overy, Blood and Ruins, 32–33.
21. Spence, The Search for Modern China, 397.
22. No single, short list of emotions is adequate to capture the full range of human emotions, but this list at least gives readers in the modern western world an idea of the types of phenomena we are discussing.
Whether this specific palette of emotions is universal across time and place is a focus of research. For a discussion, see Gazzaniga et al., 434–39.
23. Jolie Baumann and David DeSteno, “Emotion Guided Threat Detection: Expecting Guns Where There Are None,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 99, no. 4 (2010): 595–610, doi.org/10.1037/a0020665.
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After our study, a causal study in nonhuman primates showed results highly consistent with our findings for functional divisions within the insula: Fausto Caruana et al., “Emotional and Social Behaviors Elicited by Electrical Stimulation of the Insula in the Macaque Monkey,” Current Biology 21, no. 3 (February 8, 2011): 195–99, doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2010.12.042.
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4: WHERE, WHEN, AND WHAT IF … 1. This section draws on N. A. M. Rodger, The Command of the Ocean: A Naval History of Britain, 1649–1815 (London: Allen Lane, 2004), 530–43.
2. Rodger, 459–60.
3. Richard. J. Overy, War: A History in 100 Battles (William Collins, 2016), 55.
4. Rodger, 538.
5. Alexander Palmer, Henry H. Carroll, and Nicholas Velazquez, “Unpacking China’s Naval Buildup,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 5, 2024, www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-chinas-naval-buildup.
6. May-Britt Moser worked with John O’Keefe before doing her brilliant work that won a Nobel for “grid cells” alongside his for “place cells” in 2014. She wrote a highly accessible introduction, on which the first three steps in this section draw: May-Britt Moser and Noa Segev, “How Do We Find Our Way? Grid Cells in the Brain,” Frontiers for Young Minds, September 7, 2021, https://kids.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frym.2021.678725.
7. Russell A. Epstein et al., “The Cognitive Map in Humans: Spatial Navigation and Beyond,” Nature Neuroscience 20, no. 11 (November 2017): 1504–13, doi.org/10.1038/nn.4656.
8. Epstein et al.; Timothy E. J. Behrens et al., “What Is a Cognitive Map?
Organizing Knowledge for Flexible Behavior,” Neuron 100, no. 2 (October 24, 2018): 490–509, doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2018.10.002.
Causal evidence is cited in Isabel I. C. Low and Lisa M.
Giocomo, “Fifty Years of the Brain’s Sense of Space,” Nature 599, no.
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10. Roberts, The Storm of War, 353.
11. Symonds, 10.
12. This tale of the Graf Spee draws on: Symonds, chapter 2; Paul Kennedy, Victory at Sea (Yale University Press, 2022), 110–13.
13. Symonds, 33.
14. Kennedy, Victory at Sea, 113.
15. A. Coutrot et al., “Entropy of City Street Networks Linked to Future Spatial Navigation Ability,” Nature 604, no. 7904 (2022): 104–10, doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04486-7.
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29. Joint Publication 3–12, Cyberspace Operations, June 2018, DOD; Max Smeets, “Cyber Command’s Strategy Risks Friction with Allies,” Lawfare (blog), May 28, 2019, www.lawfareblog.com/cyber-commands-strategy-risks-friction-allies; Paul M. Nakasone and Michael Sulmeyer, “How to Compete in Cyberspace,” Foreign Affairs, August 25, 2020, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-25/cybersecurity; Nicholas Wright, Future Character of Information in Strategy, 2021, Intelligent Biology, www.intelligentbiology.co.uk.
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33. Xi Jinping quote from China Aerospace Studies Institute, “China’s Ground Segment: Building the Pillars of a Great Space Power,” United States Department of the Air Force, March 1, 2021.
34. Jessie Yeung and Candice Zhu, “China Reveals How It Plans to Put Astronauts on the Moon by 2030,” CNN, July 13, 2023, www.cnn.com/2023/07/13/china/china-crewed-moon-landing-2030-intl-h nk-scn/index.html.
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42. World at War, episode 10, “Wolf Pack.” 43. Symonds, 191–92.
44. He had limbic encephalitis with antibodies to the voltage-gated potassium channels. See Christopher R. Butler et al., “Persistent Anterograde Amnesia Following Limbic Encephalitis Associated with Antibodies to the Voltage-Gated Potassium Channel Complex,” Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery & Psychiatry 85, no. 4 (2014): 387–91, doi.org/10.1136/jnnp-2013– 306724.
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5: PERCEIVING REALITY 1. This specific pilot is fictional. The historical events are from Symonds, 195–208.
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4. For a fascinating tour of such animal senses, see Ed Yong, An Immense World: How Animal Senses Reveal the Hidden Realms Around Us, first edition (Bodley Head, 2022).
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11. Various alternatives are proposed that, although they take many specific forms, boil down to a simple idea of a controlled perceptual model. For accessible introductions, see Chris Frith, Making Up the Mind; and Anil Seth, Being You: A New Science of Consciousness (Faber & Faber, 2021). Chris Frith uses the term “controlled hallucination.” 12. Hierarchies have long been discussed in scientific fields beyond neuroscience: see John H.
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Hierarchies are important in influential ideas related to perception in the brain and artificial intelligence: see Karl Friston, “The Free-Energy Principle: A Unified Brain Theory?,” Nature Reviews Neuroscience 11, no. 2 (2010): 127–38. Hierarchies are central to many aspects of brain function: see Edmund T. Rolls, Cerebral Cortex: Principles of Operation (Oxford University Press, 2016), chapter 2.
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14. The brain integrates new information with expectations using processes that work something like Bayes’s rule, which is a good mathematical way of doing this. For Bayes in neuroscience, see Frith, Making Up the Mind, 119–27; Friston, “The Free Energy Principle.” Also see David Omand, How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence (Penguin UK, 2020). 15. Symonds, 281–82.
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43. Wright et al., “Testosterone Disrupts Human Collaboration by Increasing Egocentric Choices.” 44. Joseph Henrich, The Secret of Our Success (Princeton University Press, 2015), 241–42.
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47. John Lewis Gaddis, The Cold War: A New History (Penguin, 2005), 73.
48. Nicholas D. Wright, ed., Artificial Intelligence, China, Russia, and the Global Order (Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama: Air University Press, 2019), xix, 3, chapter 1. 49. Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence (W. W. Norton & Company, 2023), chapter 7.
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52. Hodan Omaar and Martin Makaryan, “How Innovative Is China in Quantum?,” Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, September 9, 2024, https://itif.org/publications/2024/09/09/how-innovative-is-china-in-quantu m/; Jamie Gaida et al., “ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker,” Australian Strategic Policy Institute, www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker, accessed December 9, 2024.
53. “How Could FPV Drones Change Warfare?,” The Economist, August 4, 2023, www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2023/08/04/how-could-fpvdrones-changewarfare; “How Cheap Drones Are Transforming Warfare in Ukraine,” The Economist, February 5, 2024, www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology/2024/02/05/che ap-racingdrones-offer-precision-warfare-at-scale; “How Ukraine Uses Cheap AI-Guided Drones to Deadly Effect Against Russia,” The Economist, December 2, 2024, www.economist.com/europe/2024/12/02/how-ukraine-uses-cheap-ai-gui ded-drones-to-deadlyeffect-against-russia.
54. For discussion of the “kill chain” concept in various contexts and published before the 2022 Ukraine invasion, see Christian Brose, The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare (Hachette UK, 2020).
55. Milford Beagle, Jason C. Slider, and Matthew R. Arrol, “The Graveyard of Command Posts: What Chornobaivka Should Teach Us About Command and Control in Large-Scale Combat Operations,” The Military Review, U.S. Army University Press, May–June 2023, www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Arch ives/May-June2023/Graveyard-of-Command-Posts/; Sam Skove, “How a US Armor Brigade Is Applying Lessons from Ukraine,” Defense One, September 24, 2024, www.defenseone.com/technology/2024/09/armored-unit-adapts-old-tech -lessonsukraine/399785/; Katie Crombe and John A. Nagl, “A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force,” The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters 53, no. 3 (2023): 4.
56. Daphné Richemond-Barak, “Israel Must Destroy Hamas’s Tunnels,” Foreign Affairs, November 9, 2023, www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/israel-must-destroy-hamas-tunnels; Sophia Goodfriend, “Israel’s High-Tech Surveillance Was Never Going to Bring Peace,” Foreign Policy (blog), December 12, 2024, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/30/israel-palestine-gaza-hamas-war-idf high-tech-surveillance/.
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66. David Kilcullen, The Dragons and the Snakes: How the Rest Learned to Fight the West (Oxford University Press, 2020), chapter 5.
67. Frith, Making Up the Mind, 101–2.
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70. For an accessible introduction to Theses on Feuerbach by a major modern philosopher see Singer, 43, from which I take these interpretations.
71. Spence, The Search for Modern China, 368–69.
72. Rebecca E. Karl, Mao Zedong and China in the Twentieth-Century World: A Concise History (Duke University Press, 2010), 59.
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16. Raihani, 196, 198.
17. Jakob Nielsen, “AI: First New UI Paradigm in 60 Years,” Nielsen Norman Group, June 18, 2023, www.nngroup.com/articles/ai-paradigm.
18. Roberts, The Storm of War, 54, 56–57; German application in Russia, e.g., Beevor, 233; David French, Raising Churchill’s Army: The British Army and the War Against Germany, 1919–1945 (Oxford University Press, 2000), 20.
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20. “Army Leadership Doctrine,” Director Leadership, Commandant Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, British Ministry of Defence Crown copyright, www.army.mod.uk/media/14177/21- 07-267-army-leadership-doctrine-web.pdf.
21. Stephen E. Ambrose, Eisenhower: Soldier and President (Simon and Schuster, 1990), 76.
22. Roberts, Masters and Commanders.
23. Samuel Newland and Clayton Chun, The European Campaign: Its Origins and Conduct (U.S.
Army War College Press, 2011), chapter 4, 142.
24. “FBI Hosts Five Eyes Summit to Launch Drive to Secure Innovation in Response to Intelligence Threats,” Press Release, Federal Bureau of Investigation, October 16, 2023, www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-hosts-five-eyes-summit-to-launch-d rive-to-secureinnovation-in-response-to-intelligence-threats; BBC World Service, “What Is Five Eyes?,” The Explanation, December 11, 2023, www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct4z74.
25. Quoted in Roberts, The Storm of War, 26.
26. To be sure, Hitler was a dictator throughout the war, and it was not simply a case of Hitler ignoring expert generals like those who developed May 1940’s “sickle cut” (Roberts, The Storm of War, 600–602), but he took personal command on the Eastern Front in December 1941 and thereafter listened to senior generals less and less (Roberts, The Storm of War, 590–94).
27. Roberts, The Storm of War, 602.
28. Roberts, Masters and Commanders, 105. 29. “Archbishop of Canterbury Learns Identity of Biological Father,” BBC, April 9, 2016, www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36002621.
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32. Wright, Artificial Intelligence, China, Russia, and the Global Order, chapter 3.
33. “The Truth About Why Kids Lie, with Victoria Talwar, Ph.D.,” Speaking of Psychology, American Psychological Association, www.apa.org/news/podcasts/speaking-ofpsychology/why-kids-lie, accessed November 29, 2024.
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38. Stephen L. Macknik et al., “Attention and Awareness in Stage Magic: Turning Tricks into Research,” Nature Reviews Neuroscience 9, no. 11 (November 2008): 871–79, doi.org/10.1038/nrn2473. 39. Daniel J.
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42. Charles F. Bond and Bella DePaulo, “Accuracy of Deception Judgments,” Personality and Social Psychology Review 10, no. 3 (2006): 214–34; doi.org/10.1207/s15327957pspr1003_2.
43. Bella M. DePaulo et al., “Cues to Deception,” Psychological Bulletin 129, no. 1 (2003): 74–118, doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.129.1.74; Aldert Vrij, Detecting Lies and Deceit: Pitfalls and Opportunities, second edition (John Wiley & Sons, 2008).
44. Farah et al.
45. You can read about military deception in officially published documents, e.g., “Military Deception,” Joint Publication 3.13–4, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, January 26, 2012, https://jfsc.ndu.edu/portals/72/documents/jc2ios/additional_reading/1c3-j p_3-13-4_mildec.pdf.
46. David E. Sanger, The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage, and Fear in the Cyber Age (Penguin Random House, 2018), 116–17; Brendan I.
Koerner, “Inside the Cyberattack That Shocked the US Government,” Wired, October 23, 2016, www.wired.com/2016/10/inside-cyberattackshocked-us-government/.
47. Sue-Lin Wong, “Hide and Bide,” The Prince, The Economist, September 28, 2022, www.economist.com/podcasts/2022/09/28/2-hide-and-bide.
48. Carissa Véliz, Privacy Is Power: Why and How You Should Take Back Control of Your Data (Bantam Press, 2020), chapter 4.
49. Beevor, 735.
50. Bruce R. Pirnie, “Soviet Deception Operations During World War II,” United States Army Center of Military History, August 30, 1985, https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA165980; Beevor, 708.
51. Beevor, 755.
52. Roberts, The Storm of War, 481–83.
53. Tony Judt, Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945 (Penguin Press, 2005).
54. Gilbert, The First World War, 499.
55. Winston S. Churchill, The Second World War, volume I (Cassell, 1948), v.
56. Ina Zweiniger-Bargielowska, “Bread Rationing in Britain, July 1946–July 1948,” Twentieth Century British History 4, no. 1 (January 1, 1993): 57–85, doi.org/10.1093/tcbh/4.1.57; Johannes-Dieter Steinert, “British Humanitarian Assistance: Wartime Planning and Postwar Realities,” Journal of Contemporary History 43, no. 3 (2008): 421–35.
57. Giada Cordoni et al., “Domestic Pigs (Sus Scrofa) Engage in Non-Random Post-Conflict Affiliation with Third Parties: Cognitive and Functional Implications,” Animal Cognition 26, no.
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61. Michael I. Handel, The Diplomacy of Surprise, Hitler, Nixon, Sadat (Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 1981), 324–28; Christopher Roger Mitchell, Gestures of Conciliation: Factors Contributing to Successful Olive Branches (St. Martin’s Press, 2000), xiii–xiv, 27–29, 119–20, 227.
62. Quoted in Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton University Press, 1976), 83.
63. MacMillan, War, 248–49.
64. Margaret MacMillan, The War That Ended Peace: The Road to 1914 (Allen Lane, 2013), xxxi.
65. Eva Michaels, “Caught off Guard? Evaluating How External Experts in Germany Warned About Russia’s War on Ukraine,” Intelligence and National Security 39, no. 3 (April 15, 2024): 420– 42, doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2024.2330133; Maia De La Baume, “France Spooked by Intelligence Failures,” Politico, April 6, 2022, www.politico.eu/article/france-militaryintelligence-failure-russia-invasionukraine/; Shane Harris et al., “Road to War: U.S. Struggled to Convince Allies, and Zelensky, of Risk of Invasion,” The Washington Post, August 16, 2022, www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-roa d-to-war/.
66. I have discussed these issues with dozens of leading thinkers in the United States, United Kingdom, other western governments, and leading universities since Xi came to power in 2012.
For a publicly available example, see Richard N. Rosecrance and Steven E. Miller, The Next Great War?: The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.-China Conflict (MIT Press, 2015).
67. Graham Allison, “Could the U.S. Lose a War with China over Taiwan?,” The National Interest, October 29, 2021, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-us-lose-war-china-over-taiwan1 95686. 68. Cancian et al.
69. Markus Garlauskas, “The United States and Its Allies Must Be Ready to Deter a Two-Front War and Nuclear Attacks in East Asia,” Atlantic Council, August 16, 2023, www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/the-united-state s-and-its-allies-mustbe-ready-to-deter-a-two-front-war-and-nuclear-attac ks-in-east-asia/.
70. “China Now Has the World’s Largest Fleet, Alarming Its Pacific Rival,” The Economist, September 26, 2020, www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/26/china-now-has-the-worlds largest-fleet-alarming-its-pacific-rival.
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72. Andrew Roberts, Leadership in War (Penguin Random House, 2019), 57.
73. Associated Press, “President Sent Sympathy on Hitler’s Death,” The Guardian, December 30, 2005, www.theguardian.com/world/2005/dec/31/secondworldwar.ireland; Mervyn O’Driscoll, “Ireland and the Nazis: a Troubled History,” The Irish Times, May 9, 2017, www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/ireland-and-the-nazis-a-troubled-histo ry-1.3076579.
74. Overy, Blood and Ruins, 646–48; MacMillan, War, 248–49.
75. Overy, Blood and Ruins, 648–49. 76. Numbers of conscientious objectors from Overy, Blood and Ruins, 657, 659. Total personnel figures from Robert Hansberry, “The World’s War in Europe—History of Government,” April 28, 2015, https://history.blog.gov.uk/2015/04/28/the-worlds-war-in-europe/; Matthews, Head Strong, 39.
77. “Number of Armed Conflicts, World,” Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Our World in Data, last updated August 26, 2024, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-armed-conflicts.
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81. Tatsuya Kameda et al., “Rawlsian Maximin Rule Operates as a Common Cognitive Anchor in Distributive Justice and Risky Decisions,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 42: 11817–22, doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1602641113.
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85. Jean-François Bonnefon, Azim Shariff, and Iyad Rahwan, “The Social Dilemma of Autonomous Vehicles,” Science 352, no. 6293 (June 24, 2016): 1573–76, doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf2654.
86. Gaddis, 21–22.
87. Gaddis, 26.
88. Gaddis, 26–27.
89. Definitions are from the following: For gray zone, see Nicholas D.
Wright, From Control to Influence: Cognition in the Grey Zone, volume 3 (Intelligent Biology, 2019), www.intelligentbiology.co.uk. For war, see Colin S. Gray, “War—Continuity in Change, and Change in Continuity,” Parameters 40, no. 2 (2010): 5–6, doi.org/10.55540/0031-1723.2521.
For peace, see Michael Howard, The Invention of Peace: Reflections on War and International Order (Profile Books, 2001), 2. 90. Gaddis, 6.
8: LEADERS AND SOCIALALCHEMY 1. Robin Dunbar’s influential “social brain hypothesis” proposed an evolutionary link between the size of primate groups and the size of their “neocortex” (“neo” means newer and this refers to the evolutionarily newer cortex that makes up about 90 percent of our human cerebral hemispheres). Considerable evidence supports the hypothesis that predicts human group size at around 150: see Robin I. M. Dunbar, “The Social Brain Hypothesis—Thirty Years On,” Annals of Human Biology 51, no. 1 (December 31, 2024): 2359920, doi.org/10.1080/03014460.2024.2359920. Others, however, dispute the precise figure, e.g., Patrik Lindenfors, Andreas Wartel, and Johan Lind, “‘Dunbar’s Number’ Deconstructed,” Biology Letters 17, no. 5 (May 5, 2021): 20210158, doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2021.0158. But despite such debates, the key point remains that human groups are unusually large: see Tamas DavidBarrett, “Human Group Size Puzzle: Why It Is Odd That We Live in Large Societies,” Royal Society Open Science 10, no. 8 (August 16, 2023): 230559, doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230559. The largest known chimp community, for example, consists of fewer than two hundred: “Ngogo Chimpanzee Project,” Arizona State University School of Human Evolution and Social Change, https://shesc.asu.edu/research/projects/ngogo-chimpanzee-project-0, accessed November 20, 2024.
2. Seth, 150.
3. Seth, 151–53.
4. Gazzaniga et al., 580–84; Quote below in Seth, 158.
5. Catriona M. Morrison and Martin A. Conway, “First Words and First Memories,” Cognition 116, no. 1 (July 1, 2010): 23–32, doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2010.03.011.
6. Dan P. McAdams, “The Psychological Self as Actor, Agent, and Author,” Perspectives on Psychological Science: A Journal of the Association for Psychological Science 8, no. 3 (May 2013): 272–95, doi.org/10.1177/1745691612464657. 7. Kristina L. Steiner, David B. Pillemer, and Dorthe Kirkegaard Thomsen, “Writing About Life Story Chapters Increases Self-Esteem: Three Experimental Studies,” Journal of Personality 87, no. 5 (2019): 962–80, doi.org/10.1111/jopy.12449; Brady K. Jones, Mesmin Destin, and Dan P.
McAdams, “Telling Better Stories: Competence-Building Narrative Themes Increase Adolescent Persistence and Academic Achievement,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 76 (May 1, 2018): 76–80, doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2017.12.006; Claire Mitchell and Elaine Reese, “Growing Memories: Coaching Mothers in Elaborative Reminiscing with Toddlers Benefits Adolescents’ Turning-Point Narratives and Wellbeing,” Journal of Personality 90, no. 6 (December 2022): 887–901, doi.org/10.1111/jopy.12703. But note, e.g., Lauren E. Jennings and Kate C. McLean, “Storying Away Self-Doubt: Can Narratives Dispel Threats to the Self?,” Journal of Research in Personality 47, no. 4 (August 1, 2013): 317–29, doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2013.02.006.
8. Dan McAdams, “Narrative Identity,” in Seth J. Schwartz, Koen Luyckx, and Vivian L. Vignoles, eds., Handbook of Identity Theory and Research (Springer, 2011), doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419- 7988-9_5.
9. This subsection on the social self draws on chapter 8 in the great book by Frith and Frith.
10. Haley E. Kragness, Elizabeth K. Johnson, and Laura K. Cirelli, “The Song, Not the Singer: Infants Prefer to Listen to Familiar Songs, Regardless of Singer Identity,” Developmental Science 25, no. 1 (January 2022): e13149, doi.org/10.1111/desc.13149.
11. Yarrow Dunham, Andrew Scott Baron, and Susan Carey, “Consequences of ‘Minimal’ Group Affiliations in Children,” Child Development 82, no. 3 (2011): 793–811, doi.org/10.1111/j.1467- 8624.2011.01577.x.
12. Naomi Ellemers, Russell Spears, and Bertjan Doosje, “Self and Social Identity,” Annual Review of Psychology 53, no. 1 (2002): 161–86, doi.org/10.1146/annurev.psych.53.100901.135228.
13. Armita Golkar, Vasco Castro, and Andreas Olsson, “Social Learning of Fear and Safety Is Determined by the Demonstrator’s Racial Group,” Biology Letters 11, no. 1 (January 2015): 20140817, doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2014.0817. 14. Pyungwon Kang et al., “Why We Learn Less from Observing Outgroups,” Journal of Neuroscience 41, no. 1 (January 6, 2021): 144–52, doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.0926-20.2020.
15. Carina C. J. M. de Klerk et al., “Selective Facial Mimicry of Native over Foreign Speakers in Preverbal Infants,” Journal of Experimental Child Psychology 183 (2019): 33–47, doi.org/10.1016/j.jecp.2019.01.015.
16. Marco F. H. Schmidt, Hannes Rakoczy, and Michael Tomasello, “Young Children Enforce Social Norms Selectively Depending on the Violator’s Group Affiliation,” Cognition 124, no. 3 (September 1, 2012): 325–33, doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2012.06.004.
17. Naomi I. Eisenberger, “The Pain of Social Disconnection: Examining the Shared Neural Underpinnings of Physical and Social Pain,” Nature Reviews Neuroscience 13, no. 6 (June 2012): 421–34, doi.org/10.1038/nrn3231; Stephanie Cacioppo et al., “A Quantitative MetaAnalysis of Functional Imaging Studies of Social Rejection,” Scientific Reports 3 (June 19, 2013): 2027, doi.org/10.1038/srep02027; Willem W. A. Sleegers, Travis Proulx, and Ilja van Beest, “The Social Pain of Cyberball: Decreased Pupillary Reactivity to Exclusion Cues,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 69 (March 1, 2017): 187–200, doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2016.08.004.
18. Judt, 58.
19. David A. Messenger and Katrin Paehler, A Nazi Past: Recasting German Identity in Postwar Europe (University Press of Kentucky, 2015).
20. Odd Arne Westad, The Cold War: A World History (Allen Lane, 2017), 89.
21. Judt, 149.
22. “Lord Ismay,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_137930.htm, accessed December 2, 2024.
23. Judt, 149–52.
24. Robert Jervis, “Identity and the Cold War,” in Melvyn P. Leffler and Odd Arne Westad, eds., The Cambridge History of the Cold War: Volume 2: Crises and Détente (Cambridge University Press, 2010), 22–43.
25. Francis Fukuyama, The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution (Profile Books, 2011), 62. 26. For features of the state, see Francis Fukuyama, The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution (Profile Books, 2011), 80–81; for the first state, James C. Scott, Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States (Yale University Press, 2017), 3. 27. For a general discussion of culture across many different academic fields, see, e.g., Wright, “Global Strategy Amidst the Globe’s Cultures.” 28. For a discussion of recent work including sound recordings, see, e.g., John Thornhill, “Can AI Help Us Speak to Animals? Part One and Part Two,” Financial Times, September 19, 2023, www.ft.com/content/869709c0-20fb-49f3-a99d-4ed9e28dd0ef.
29. Gazzaniga et al., 476–81.
30. Judit Fazekas et al., “Do Children Learn from Their Prediction Mistakes? A Registered Report Evaluating Error-Based Theories of Language Acquisition,” Royal Society Open Science 7 (November 4,2020): 180877, doi.org/10.1098/rsos.180877.
31. Stuart Russell, Human Compatible: AI and the Problem of Control (Allen Lane, 2019), 79.
32. Aida Suárez-González et al., “Semantic Variant Primary Progressive Aphasia: Practical Recommendations for Treatment from 20 Years of Behavioral Research,” Brain Sciences 11, no.
12 (November 23, 2021): 1552, doi.org/10.3390/brainsci11121552.
33. My first-ever published brain imaging study looked at this topic, which I conducted with one of my most inspirational scientific role models, Cathy Price. Nicholas D. Wright et al., “Selective Activation Around the Left Occipito-Temporal Sulcus for Words Relative to Pictures: Individual Variability or False Positives?,” Human Brain Mapping 29, no.
8 (August 2008): 986–1000, doi.org/10.1002/hbm.20443. Many others before and since have explored this brain region in writing and other functions.
34. Scott, Against the Grain, 139–49.
35. James Walker, “Top General Says Military Doesn’t Take Oath to Any Individual amid Pentagon Shakeup,” Newsweek, November 13, 2020, www.newsweek.com/top-general-military-oathindividual-pentagon-shake up-1547167.
36. See John Horgan, “To End War, Focus on Culture Rather than ‘Root Causes,’” Scientific American, August 18, 2014, www.scientificamerican.com/blog/cross-check/to-end-war-focuson-cultur e-rather-than-root-causes/.
37. “Ibn Khaldun, A Universal History (Selections),” https://web2.qatar.cmu.edu/~breilly2/world/Ibn%20Khaldun.htm, accessed December 2, 2024.
38. William James, The Principles of Psychology (Harvard University Press, 1981, originally published in 1890), 462.
39. Yascha Mounk and Roberto Stefan Foa, “This Is How Democracy Dies,” The Atlantic, January 29, 2020, www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/confidence-democracy-lowe st-pointrecord/605686/; Roberto Foa, “Youth and Satisfaction with Democracy: Reversing the Democratic Disconnect?,” The Bennett Institute for Public Policy, October 19, 2020, www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/youth-and-satisfaction-dem ocracy/; “Open Society Barometer,” Open Society Foundations, September 2023, www.opensocietyfoundations.org/focus/open-society-barometer.
40. Quotes from Elizabeth Knowles, Oxford Dictionary of Quotations, eighth edition (Oxford University Press, 2014), 409; “Quote Origin: We Learn from History That We Do Not Learn from History,” Quote Investigator, March 6, 2024, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2024/03/06/learn-history/.
41. Graff and Higham, 201, chapter 11.
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64. Henrich, 42, 124–25, chapter 4.
65. Stanley Milgram, Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View (Tavistock Publications, 1974); Craig Haney, Curtis Banks, and Philip Zimbardo, “A Study of Prisoners and Guards in a Simulated Prison,” Naval Research Reviews, Office of Naval Research (September 1973): 11.
The breadth of the conclusions from these studies has been hotly debated: see Alexander Haslam and Stephen D. Reicher, “Contesting the ‘Nature’ of Conformity: What Milgram and Zimbardo’s Studies Really Show,” PLOS Biology 10, no. 11 (November 20, 2012): e1001426, doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001426. But a basic idea remains that many seemingly “ordinary” people (although not all, including some who may actively resist) will conform and do others’ dirty work.
66. Evan Osnos, Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth and Faith in the New China (Random House, 2014), 60.
67. Micah G. Edelson et al., “Computational and Neurobiological Foundations of Leadership Decisions,” Science 361, no. 6401 (August 3, 2018), doi.org/10.1126/science.aat0036; Fleming and Bang.
68. Zeng et al.
69. Roberts, Leadership in War.
70. The idea of scripts is the concluding framing in Freedman, Strategy, 598–99, 618–29.
71. Spence, The Search for Modern China, 505.
72. “Xi Jinping Is Obsessed with Political Loyalty in the PLA,” The Economist, November 6, 2023; www.economist.com/special-report/2023/11/06/xi-jinping-is-obsessed-wit h-political-loyalty-inthe-pla; “Communist Party Members Must Study Xi Jinping’s Thinking,” The Economist, April 13, 2023, www.economist.com/china/2023/04/13/communist-party-members-muststudy-xijinpings-thinking.
73. Craig Singleton, “Xi’s Schadenfreude Over Moscow’s Mutiny,” Foreign Policy (blog), December 4, 2024, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/29/xi-putin-wagner-prigozhin-russiachi na-ukraine-war/.
74. David Vergun, “America Marks Anniversary of End of Korean War,” U.S. Department of Defense, July 24, 2023, www.defense.gov/News/NewsStories/Article/Article/3418679/america-m arks-anniversary-of-end-of-korean-war/.
75. Lawrence Freedman, Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine (Allen Lane, 2022), 24.
76. Freedman, Command, 29.
77. “Eisenhower and McCarthy,” PBS, www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/eisenhower-politics/, accessed December 2, 2024.
78. Freedman, Command, 5–7; Carlo D’Este, “Dwight D. Eisenhower,” in Andrew Roberts, ed., The Art of War: Great Commanders of the Modern World (Quercus, 2009).
79. Westad, The Cold War, 224–26, 288. Aaron L. Friedberg, “The Long Haul: Fighting and Funding America’s Next Wars,” Foreign Affairs, July 1, 2007, www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2007-07-01/long-haul. 80.
Michael Beschloss, “Eisenhower, an Unlikely Pioneer of TV Ads,” The New York Times, October 30, 2015, www.nytimes.com/2015/11/01/upshot/eisenhower-an-unlikely-pioneer-oftvads.html.
81. Sam Tanenhaus, “Who Stopped McCarthy?,” The Atlantic, April 2017, www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/04/who-stopped-mccarthy/ 517782/.
82. Wong, “Xi Jinping.” 83. Michelle Goldberg, “Opinion: Are We Really Facing a Second Civil War?,” The New York Times, January 6, 2022, www.nytimes.com/2022/01/06/opinion/america-civil-war.html; David Remnick, “Is a Civil War Ahead?,” The New Yorker, January 5, 2022, www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/is-a-civil-war-ahead. 84. Michael Smerconish, “Is America Heading to Civil War or Secession?,” CNN Politics, 2022, www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/01/08/is-america-heading-to-civil-waror-secession.cnn.
85. Stephen Marche, The Next Civil War: Dispatches from the American Future (Avid Reader Press, 2022); Barbara F. Walter, How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them (Penguin UK, 2022).
86. Peter T. Coleman, “The U.S. Is Heading Toward a Second Civil War.
Here Is How to Avoid It,” Time, October 20, 2022, https://time.com/6222633/second-civil-war-us-how-to-avoid/.
87. “How the LDP Dominates Japan’s Politics,” The Economist, October 28, 2021, www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/10/28/how-the-ldp-do minates-japanspolitics.
88. Wright, Artificial Intelligence, China, Russia, and the Global Order, chapter 3.
89. “Communist Party Members Must Study Xi Jinping’s Thinking,” The Economist, April 13, 2023, www.economist.com/china/2023/04/13/communist-party-members-muststudy-xijinpings-thinking.
90. “Politics by Numbers,” The Economist, March 23, 2016, www.economist.com/specialreport/2016/03/23/politics-by-numbers.
91. Laura Barrón-López et al., “Trump’s Success Among Young Men Illustrates Influence of Online ‘Manosphere,’” PBS News, November 25, 2024, www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trumps-successamong-young-men-illustrat es-influence-of-online-manosphere.
92. Thomas Rid, Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation and Political Warfare, illustrated edition (Macmillan, 2020).
93. Westad, The Cold War, 113–14.
94. Rid; on peace movements see chapter 19, on HIV see chapter 22, and on relative later CIA restraint compared to earlier in the Cold War and compared to the KGB see 7, 11–12, 322–23.
95. Heidi Holz, “China’s Global Public Opinion War with the United States and the West,” War on the Rocks, August 14, 2024, https://warontherocks.com/2024/08/chinas-global-public-opinionwar-with -the-united-states-and-the-west/; Raksha Kumar, “How China Uses the News Media as a Weapon in Its Propaganda War Against the West,” Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, November 2, 2021, https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/how-china-usesnews-media -weapon-its-propaganda-war-against-west.
96. Rid, e.g., since 2015 see 377–422.
97. “China Is Flooding Taiwan with Disinformation,” The Economist, September 26, 2023, www.economist.com/asia/2023/09/26/china-is-flooding-taiwan-with-disinf ormation; Sarah Rainsford, “How Meddling Blamed on Russia Exploited Real Grievances in Romania,” BBC News, December 10, 2024, www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20ndg1eeeno.
98. Frank Dikötter, China After Mao: The Rise of a Superpower (Bloomsbury Publishing, 2022), 151–53, 156, 158, 162, 174, 277; John Culver, “Envisioning Positive U.S.-China Relations in the 2030s,” in U.S.-China Relations for the 2030s: Toward a Realistic Scenario for Coexistence, ed. Christopher Chivvis (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024).
99. Nicholas D. Wright, “Cognitive Defense of the Joint Force in a Digitizing World,” Intelligent Biology, July 2021, www.intelligentbiology.co.uk; Beauchamp-Mustafaga, “Chinese NextGeneration Psychological Warfare.” 100. Abraham Lincoln, “Address Delivered Before the Young Men’s Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois, January 27, 1837,” The American Presidency Project, www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-delivered-before-the-you ng-mens-lyceumspringfield-illinois, accessed December 2, 2024.
101. Matthews, Head Strong, 1.
9: CLEVER 1. Richard Wolfson and Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, “The Devastating Effects of Nuclear War,” excerpt from Nuclear Choices for the Twenty-First Century (MIT Press, 2021), The MIT Press Reader, March 2, 2022, https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/devastating-effects-of-nuclear-weapon s-war/; Joe Phelan, “How Many Nuclear Weapons Exist, and Who Has Them?,” Scientific American, March 22, 2022, www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-many-nuclear-weapons-exist-an dwho-has-them/. 2. Richard Levy, “The Prefrontal Cortex: From Monkey to Man,” Brain 147, no. 3 (March 1, 2024): 794–815, doi.org/10.1093/brain/awad389; Chad J. Donahue et al., “Quantitative Assessment of Prefrontal Cortex in Humans Relative to Nonhuman Primates,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 22 (May 29, 2018), doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1721653115; but note Robert A. Barton and Stephen H. Montgomery, “Proportional Versus Relative Size as Metrics in Human Brain Evolution,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 1 (January 2, 2019): 3–4, doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817200116.
3. “The State of Global AI Research,” Emerging Technology Observatory, May 2, 2024, https://eto.tech/blog/state-of-global-ai-research/; Ryan McMorrow and Edward White, “China Challenges the West for Driverless Car Supremacy,” Financial Times, January 31, 2024, www.ft.com/content/3a649978–69df-46eb-94c8-eee23a69e6bb; “Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2024,” Stanford University: Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, 2024, https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/.
4. Peter Smittenaar et al., “Disruption of Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex Decreases Model-Based in Favor of Model-Free Control in Humans,” Neuron 80, no. 4 (November 20, 2013): 914–19, doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2013.08.009.
5. This subsection draws on a recent report, Nicholas Wright, “Who will we—and they—be on Day 30 or Day 1000 in deterrence?” v1, 2025, Intelligent Biology, www.intelligent biology.co.uk.
6. Raymond J. Dolan and Peter Dayan, “Goals and Habits in the Brain,” Neuron 80, no. 2 (October 16, 2013): 312–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2013.09.007.
7. Adapted from Marcelo G. Mattar and Máté Lengyel, “Planning in the Brain,” Neuron 110, no. 6 (March 16, 2022): 914–34, doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2021.12.018.
8. Mattar and Lengyel.
9. See Huys et al., “Interplay of Approximate Planning Strategies”; Joseph Snider et al., “Prospective Optimization with Limited Resources,” PLOS Computational Biology 11, no. 9 (September 14, 2015): e1004501, doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004501; Bas van Opheusden et al., “Expertise Increases Planning Depth in Human Gameplay,” Nature 618, no. 7967 (June 2023): 1000–05, doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06124-2.
10. See Mehdi Keramati et al., “Adaptive Integration of Habits into Depth-Limited Planning Defines a Habitual-Goal-Directed Spectrum,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 45 (November 8, 2016): 12868–73, doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1609094113.
Note also van Opheusden et al. for further interesting effects. Subjects also trade off the frequency of deeper and shallower analyses after an action or series of actions (Snider et al.). 11. Clare Wilson, “Why Thinking Hard for Several Hours Can Leave You Mentally Exhausted,” New Scientist, August 11, 2022, www.newscientist.com/article/2333230-why-thinking-hard-forseveral-hou rs-can-leave-you-mentally-exhausted/.
12. Huys et al.
13. Keith Kyle, “Britain and the Crisis, 1955–1956,” in Wm. Roger Louis and Roger Owen, eds., Suez 1956: The Crisis and Its Consequences (Oxford University Press, 1991), 114–19, doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198202417.003.0006.
14. The U.S. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR), for example, wrote that the administration had “no established plans to manage the increasing chaos” in Iraq, and that “when Iraq’s withering post-invasion reality superseded [officials’] expectations, there was no well-defined ‘Plan B’ as a fallback and no existing government structures or resources to support a quick response.” SIGIR, Hard Lessons: The Iraq Reconstruction Experience (Government Printing Office, 2009), 323–24. Decision-makers and officials had sufficient resources to look ahead and plan for uncomfortable scenarios such as a long insurgency, e.g., Secretary of Rumsfeld’s “Parade of Horribles” secret memorandum drafted in October 2002, sent by him to the president and National Security Council (NSC), that listed possible bad outcomes, including a U.S. occupation lasting eight to ten years: Mike Allen, “Rumsfeld Hits Comeback Trail,” Politico, May 22, 2011, www.politico.com/story/2011/05/rumsfeld-hitscomeback-trail-055460. But these possibilities beyond the unwelcome event that postwar Iraq collapsed, incurring big U.S. costs—they were ignored and not planned for. Bob Woodward, for example, reviewed notes taken during the briefing on postwar Iraq on March 4, 2003, by the official overseeing policy planning for postwar Iraq to the NSC—and concluded that what was presented was a “rosy, pie-in-the-sky” scenario lacking particulars: Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack (Simon and Schuster, 2004), 136.
15. May, 460.
16. Camerer, 20; but it may be higher in some circumstances and so more similar to the depth of look-aheads noted earlier, e.g., Adam S.
Goodie, Prashant Doshi, and Diana L. Young, “Levels of Theory-of-Mind Reasoning in Competitive Games,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 25, no. 1 (2012): 95–108, doi.org/10.1002/bdm.717; Yohsuke Ohtsubo and Amnon Rapoport, “Depth of Reasoning in Strategic Form Games,” The Journal of Socio-Economics, Essays on Behavioral Economics, 35, no. 1 (February 1, 2006): 31–47, doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2005.12.003.
17. Friedrich Engels quoted in Singer, 47.
18. Gaddis, 84.
19. Sergey Radchenko and Vladislav Zubok, “Blundering on the Brink,” Foreign Affairs, April 3, 2023, www.foreignaffairs.com/cuba/missile-crisis-secret-history-soviet-union-ru ssia-ukrainelessons.
20. Radchenko and Zubok.
21. Radchenko and Zubok.
22. Graham T. Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, second edition (Longman, 1999), 111–20.
23. Allison and Zelikow, 112–13, 115–18; Freedman, Command, 81. It was described as a “quarantine” rather than a blockade.
24. Freedman, Command, 85–86, 89, 90–91, 105. 25. Freedman, Command, 89.
26. Radchenko and Zubok.
27. Freedman, Strategy, ix.
28. Knowles, 539.
29. Michael Howard, War in European History (Oxford University Press, 1976), 83–84.
30. Howard, War in European History, 101.
31. Howard, War in European History, 83–84; Clausewitz, On War, 17–19, 46–8, 54, 59. 32. Tim Shallice and Paul W. Burgess, “Deficits in Strategy Application Following Frontal Lobe Damage in Man,” Brain 114, no. 2 (1991): 727–41.
33. Stephen M. Fleming, Know Thyself: The New Science of Self-Awareness (John Murray, 2021), 48.
34. Mohamady El-Gaby et al., “A Cellular Basis for Mapping Behavioural Structure,” Nature 636 (November 6, 2024): 1–10, doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08145-x.
35. Donald A. Norman and Tim Shallice, “Attention to Action,” in Richard J. Davidson, Gary E.
Schwartz, and David Shapiro, eds., Consciousness and Self-Regulation: Advances in Research and Theory, volume 4 (Springer, 1986), 1–18, doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-0629-1_1.
36. Mindset is discussed in various contexts with different definitions.
This definition is broadly consistent with most strands of debate, e.g., Robert P. French, “The Fuzziness of Mindsets: Divergent Conceptualizations and Characterizations of Mindset Theory and Praxis,” International Journal of Organizational Analysis 24, no. 4 (2016): 673–91, doi.org/10.1108/IJOA-09-2014-0797; Peter M. Gollwitzer, “Mindset Theory of Action Phases,” in Paul Van Lange, Arie W.
Kruglanski, and E. T. Higgins, eds., Handbook of Theories of Social Psychology, volume 1 (Sage Publications Ltd, 2012), 526–45, doi.org/10.4135/9781446249215.n26.
37. Gollwitzer.
38. Dominic D. P. Johnson and Dominic Tierney, “The Rubicon Theory of War: How the Path to Conflict Reaches the Point of No Return,” International Security 36, no. 1 (2011): 7–40.
39. Johnson and Tierney.
40. James Danckert and Andreas Elpidorou, “In Search of Boredom: Beyond a Functional Account,” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 27, no. 5 (May 1, 2023): 494–507, doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2023.02.002.
41. Beevor, 60–62.
42. Raphaël Le Bouc and Mathias Pessiglione, “A Neuro-Computational Account of Procrastination Behavior,” Nature Communications 13, no. 1 (September 26, 2022): 5639, doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33119-w.
43. Epstein, Range, 132–39, 145, 294. 44. Animal studies discussed in Ariana Vanderveldt, Luís Oliveira, and Leonard Green, “Delay Discounting: Pigeon, Rat, Human—Does It Matter?,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Learning and Cognition 42, no. 2 (2016): 141–62, doi.org/10.1037/xan0000097; but note Benjamin Y. Hayden, “Time Discounting and Time Preference in Animals: A Critical Review,” Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 23, no. 1 (February 1, 2016): 39–53, doi.org/10.3758/s13423-015-0879-3. Twin studies cited in Le Bouc and Pessiglione. 45. Le Bouc and Pessiglione.
46. Radchenko and Zubok.
47. Kevin P. Madore and Anthony D. Wagner, “Multicosts of Multitasking,” Cerebrum: The Dana Forum on Brain Science 2019 (April 1, 2019): cer-04-19.
48. Kelly G. Garner and Paul E. Dux, “Knowledge Generalization and the Costs of Multitasking,” Nature Reviews Neuroscience 24, no. 2 (February 2023): 98–112, doi.org/10.1038/s41583-022- 00653-x.
49. Madore and Wagner.
50. David L. Strayer, Frank A. Drews, and Dennis J. Crouch, “A Comparison of the Cell Phone Driver and the Drunk Driver,” Human Factors 48, no. 2 (June 1, 2006): 381–91, doi.org/10.1518/001872006777724471.
51. Madore and Wagner.
52. “Plans Are Worthless, But Planning Is Everything,” Quote Investigator, November 18, 2017, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2017/11/18/planning/.
53. Douglas Pike, PAVN: People’s Army of Vietnam (Brassey’s Defence, 1986), chapters 9 and 10, 213–17, 233; Donald Stoker, Purpose and Power: US Grand Strategy from the Revolutionary Era to the Present (Cambridge University Press, 2024), doi.org/10.1017/9781009257268, chapter 12; Geoffrey Perret, “Vo Nguyen Giap,” in Andrew Roberts, ed., The Art of War: Great Commanders of the Modern World (Quercus, 2009), 427.
54. Pike, chapters 9 and 10; Stoker, chapter 12; Westad, The Cold War, 333–34.
55. George W. Ball, “Memorandum from the Under Secretary of State (Ball) to President Johnson” (Office of the Historian, June 18, 1965), Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume III, Vietnam, June–December 1965, https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964–68v03/d7.
56. Geoffrey C. Ward and Ken Burns, The Vietnam War: An Intimate History (Random House, 2018), 184.
57. Paul Ham, Vietnam: The Australian War (HarperCollins, 2010); Robert H. Scales, Certain Victory: The U.S. Army in the Gulf War (Potomac Books, Inc., 1997), 6.
58. See “Vietnam (1954–1968),” Cold War (CNN, 1998–1999), which described Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara’s search for statistics but reported lack of listening to Vietnamese feedback on his visits.
59. Ward and Burns, 262.
60. Jon Askonas, “A Vicious Entanglement, Part V: The Body Count Myth,” War on the Rocks, October 12, 2017, https://warontherocks.com/2017/10/a-vicious-entanglement-part-v-the-bo dycount-myth/.
61. Interview, “Vietnam,” Cold War.
62. Phillip B. Davidson, Vietnam at War: The History, 1946–1975 (Presidio Press, 1988), 655.
63. Anna Abraham, The Neuroscience of Creativity (Cambridge University Press, 2018), 7–10.
64. James Lucas, Battle Group!: German Kampfgruppen Action of World War Two (Arms and Armour, 1993), 7.
65. Lucas, 8–9. 66. Elizabeth Kier, Imagining War: French and British Military Doctrine Between the Wars (Princeton University Press, 1997), 83.
67. Milan Vego, “On Military Creativity,” Joint Force Quarterly 70, no. 3 (2013): 83–90.
68. Vego, “On Military Creativity.” 69. May, Strange Victory, 10.
70. John Winthrop Hackett, The Profession of Arms (Sidgwick & Jackson, 1983), 100–4; Milan Vego, “German War Gaming,” Naval War College Review 65, no. 4 (2012): 106–48.
71. Gil Gonen-Yaacovi et al., “Rostral and Caudal Prefrontal Contribution to Creativity: A MetaAnalysis of Functional Imaging Data,” Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 7 (August 14, 2013): 465, doi.org/10.3389/fnhum.2013.00465.
72. Roger E. Beaty et al., “Core Network Contributions to Remembering the Past, Imagining the Future, and Thinking Creatively,” Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience 30, no. 12 (December 1, 2018): 1939–51, doi.org/10.1162/jocn_a_01327.
73. Melissa Ellamil et al., “Evaluative and Generative Modes of Thought During the Creative Process,” NeuroImage 59, no. 2 (January 16, 2012): 1783–94, doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2011.08.008.
74. Roger E. Beaty, “The Creative Brain,” Cerebrum: The Dana Forum on Brain Science 2020 (January 1, 2020): cer-02–20.
75. Shelly L. Gable, Elizabeth A. Hopper, and Jonathan W. Schooler, “When the Muses Strike: Creative Ideas of Physicists and Writers Routinely Occur During Mind Wandering,” Psychological Science 30, no.
3 (March 1, 2019): 396–404, doi.org/10.1177/0956797618820626.
76. Epstein, Range, 33–34.
77. Brian Uzzi et al., “Atypical Combinations and Scientific Impact,” Science 342, no. 6157 (October 25, 2013): 468–72, doi.org/10.1126/science.1240474.
78. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton University Press, 2017).
79. Clare Wilson, “Interrupting Sleep After a Few Minutes Can Boost Creativity,” NewScientist, December 8, 2021, www.newscientist.com/article/2300883-interrupting-sleep-after-a-fewmin utes-can-boost-creativity/.
80. George Perkovich and James Acton, Abolishing Nuclear Weapons, first edition (Routledge, 2008).
81. Henry Kissinger, On China (Penguin, 2011), 217.
82. Kissinger, On China, 217.
83. Kissinger, On China, 234.
84. Kissinger, On China, 269–70.
85. Spence, The Search for Modern China, 629–33, 654–55, 669–73; Kissinger, On China, 329–37, 396–407, 441–45. To be sure, it was also a messy process, as described in Dikötter, China After Mao e.g., Preface.
86. Deng at the December 1978 Third Plenum, quoted in Kissinger, On China, 336.
87. Deng at the December 1978 Third Plenum, quoted in Kissinger, On China, 335.
88. Westad, The Cold War, 367–69, 528–30; Gaddis, 213–14. 89. “For Artificial Intelligence to Thrive, It Must Explain Itself,” The Economist, February 15, 2018, www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2018/02/15/for-artificial-int elligence-to-thrive-itmust-explain-itself.
90. Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence (W. W. Norton & Company, 2023), chapter 28.
91. “Functions Reward Functions in the Wild,” OpenAI, December 21, 2016, https://openai.com/research/faulty-reward-functions.
92. Spence, The Search for Modern China, 514–23; Westad, The Cold War, 243; Frank Dikötter, “Looking Back on the Great Leap Forward,” History Today, August 8, 2016, www.historytoday.com/archive/looking-back-great-leap-forward. The effect of the Great Leap Forward can be seen on global life expectancy data, e.g., “Life Expectancy,” Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?
country=OWID_WRL~Americas~OWID_EUR~OWID_AFR~OWID_ASI~ OWID_OCE~CHN , accessed December 3, 2024.
93. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment.
94. James Griffiths, “China Is Exporting the Great Firewall as Internet Freedom Declines Around the World,” CNN, November 2, 2018, https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/01/asia/internet-freedomchina-censorshi p-intl/index.html.
95. Freedman, Strategy, 106–7. This subsection more broadly draws in part on Wright, Why are we integrating now.
96. Margaret MacMillan, The War That Ended Peace: How Europe Abandoned Peace for the First World War (Profile Books, 2013), 322–23.
97. David C. Gompert, Hans Binnendijk, and Bonny Lin, Blinders, Blunders, and Wars: What America and China Can Learn (RAND Corporation, 2014), chapter 5, www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR768.html.
98. Steven L. Rearden, Council of War: A History of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1942–1991 (Washington, D.C.: NDU Press for the Joint History Office, Office of the Director, Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff, 2012), 60.
99. For brains, see the introduction by Friston to Part II on imaging neuroscience theory and analysis in Richard S. J. Frackowiak et al., eds., Human Brain Function, second edition (Academic Press, 2004), www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/doc/books/hbf2/. For a broader view, see Nicholas D. Wright, “Why Are We Integrating Now—and How Can We Integrate Better?
History, Complexity and Metacognition,” Intelligent Biology, August 2022, www.intelligentbiology.co.uk.
100. T. S. Eliot, The Rock (1934), part 1.
101. Clausewitz, 59.
102. Luciano Floridi, Information: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford University Press, 2010), 23.
This subsection on data, information, knowledge, and wisdom draws on Wright, Future Character of Information in Strategy.
103. Knowledge and information are members of the same conceptual family, but knowledge enjoys a web of mutual relations that allow one part of it to account for another—so that once some information is available, knowledge can be built in terms of explanations or accounts that make sense of the available information (Floridi, 51). Knowledge as “justified true belief” has been a powerful definition since Plato, although the problems raised in Edmund Gettier’s 1963 paper as to whether this is sufficient for knowledge have compromised that definition for many contemporary philosophers of knowledge; Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa and Matthias Steup, “The Analysis of Knowledge,” revised March 7, 2017, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2018), https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/sum2018/entries/knowledge-analysis/.
104. Wisdom is discussed across many diverse disciplines. For accessible discussions of wisdom in philosophy, see, e.g., Sharon Ryan, “Wisdom,” revised February 4, 2013, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Spring 2020), https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2020/entries/wisdom/; in psychology, see, e.g., Igor Grossmann, “Wisdom in Context,” Perspectives on Psychological Science 12, no. 2 (March 1, 2017): 233–57, doi.org/10.1177/1745691616672066; in management, see, e.g., Jennifer Rowley, “The Wisdom Hierarchy: Representations of the DIKW Hierarchy,” Journal of Information Science 33, no. 2 (April 1, 2007): 163–80, doi.org/10.1177/0165551506070706; and in functional genomics, see, e.g., Chris P. Ponting, “Big Knowledge from Big Data in Functional Genomics,” Emerging Topics in Life Sciences 1, no. 3 (November 14, 2017): 245–48, doi.org/10.1042/ETLS20170129.
105. As relayed to this author and paraphrased here. 106. Consider two of the foremost deterrence thinkers: Bernard Brodie, “The Anatomy of Deterrence,” World Politics 11, no. 2 (January 1959): 173–91, doi.org/10.2307/2009527, 293, who stated that “For the sake of deterrence before hostilities, the enemy must expect us to be vindictive and irrational if he attacks us”; Thomas Crombie Schelling, Arms and Influence (Yale University Press, 1966), 37, who wrote that “Another paradox of deterrence is that it does not always help to be, or to be believed to be, fully rational, cool headed, and in control of one’s country.” Both are discussed in Frank Zagarre, “Double Deterrence,” Strategic Multilayer Assessment, NSI, August 2023, https://nsiteam.com/social/double-deterrence-two-challengersone-defen der/.
107. W. J. Hennigan, “Opinion: The Brink,” The New York Times, March 4, 2024, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/07/opinion/nuclear-war-prevention .html.
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10: WISER 1. This section on the remarkable life of Shaka Zulu is based on Saul David, “Shaka Zulu,” in Andrew Roberts, ed., The Art of War: Great Commanders of the Modern World (Quercus, 2009).
2. As Paul Bracken describes: “Net assessment, thus, had its origins in the need to integrate Red [the other side] and Blue [our side] strategy in a single place. This is where the term net came from.” Paul Bracken, “Net Assessment: A Practical Guide,” The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters 36, no. 1 (March 1, 2006), doi.org/10.55540/0031-1723.2285. For the Revolution in Military Affairs, see, e.g., Freedman, Strategy, 214–20.
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3. Overy, Blood and Ruins, 605.
4. Letter from Albert Einstein written with Leo Szilard to President Franklin Roosevelt on August 2, 1939, FDR-24, www.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/archives/collections/franklin/? p=collections/findingaid&id=510; Deborah Nicholls-Lee, “‘It Was the One Great Mistake in My Life’: The Letter from Einstein That Ushered in the Age of the Atomic Bomb,” August 6, 2024, www.bbc.com/culture/article/20240801-it-was-the-one-great-mistake-inmy-life-the-letter-fromeinstein-that-ushered-in-the-age-of-the-atomic-bom b.
5. Handel, 326; Mitchell, xiii–xiv, 27–9, 119–20, 227.
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15. This dictum is based on sections of Clausewitz, including “War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means.” On War (1832–1834) book 8, chapter 6, section B, quoted in “War,” Oxford Reference, www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.00 01/q-oro-ed4- 00011287, accessed December 6, 2024. Debates surround whether the word “politics” should be translated as “policy,” as it is by Howard and Paret. For a discussion, see Freedman, Strategy, 86–88, 92–94.
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17. Claire Press and Svitlana Libet, “How Russia’s 35-Mile Armoured Convoy Ended in Failure,” BBC, February 22, 2023, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64664944; Michael Schwirtz et al., “Putin’s War,” The New York Times, December 17, 2022, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-f ailures-ukraine.html.
18. See various contributions in Nicholas D. Wright, Michael Miklaucic, and Todd Veazie, eds., Human, Machine, War: How the Mind-Tech Nexus Will Win Future Wars (Air University Press, forthcoming). Sidharth Kaushal et al., “Leveraging Human-Machine Teaming,” Special Competitive Studies Project and the Royal United Services Institute, 2024, www.scsp.ai/2024/01/report-on-leveraging-human-machine-teaming-by-t he-specialcompetitive-studies-project-and-the-royal-united-services-instit ute/, 13–14.
19. Sun Tzu, The Art of War (translated by Lionel Giles, 1910), www.gutenberg.org/files/132/132- h/132-h.htm, chapter 3, 17.
20. Michael E. Howard, “Strategy: The Indirect Approach,” International Affairs 31, no. 1 (January 1955): 96, doi.org/10.2307/2604619.
21. Churchill, The Second World War, volume 1, ix.
22. Emily Sohn, “The Eyes of Mammals Reveal a Dark Past,” Nature, April 10, 2019, doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-01109-6. 23. For a public report on such risks, see, e.g., Ezra Karger et al., “Forecasting Existential Risks,” August 8, 2023, https://forecastingresearch.org/s/XPT.pdf.
24. Such a catastrophe would kill at least a similar proportion of the world’s population over a similar time frame to either World War I (some 15 million deaths out of a global population of 1.9 billion over four years) or World War II (some 60 million deaths out of 2.3 billion over six to eight years), or a pandemic (natural or human-made) of at least a similar scale to the influenza pandemic of 1918 to 1920 (some 50 million deaths out of 1.9 billion; for comparison, note that while very serious the COVID-19 pandemic led to significantly fewer deaths at around 27 million out of a global population of 8 billion over four years, many of whom were older or more vulnerable). Other catastrophic risks could also kill a similar proportion of the world’s population over a similar time frame, such as climate change or AI gone rogue. Events often blend together, such as the influenza pandemic and World War I, or World War I and the Russian civil war, or even the two World Wars. I would estimate the probability of an extinction-level event, in which only a few thousand humans survive, such as an all-out nuclear war that seriously affects the climate, at less than 0.1 to 0.5 percent. I fully acknowledge that although based in evidence these all remain highly subjective judgments, and it is also crucial to state that this in no way minimizes the tragedy of events at other scales, such as the dozens of conflicts happening across the world today. Figures from “Population,” Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population, accessed December 12, 2024; Gerhard Hirschfeld, Gerd Krumeich, and Irina Renz, Brill’s Encyclopedia of the First World War, revised edition (Brill, 2012); Beevor, 1; “Estimated Cumulative Excess Deaths During COVID-19,” Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-deaths-cumulative-economistsingleentity, accessed December 12, 2024; Niall P. A. S. Johnson and Juergen Mueller, “Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918–1920 ‘Spanish’ Influenza Pandemic,” Bulletin of the History of Medicine 76, no. 1 (2002): 105–15, doi.org/10.1353/bhm.2002.0022.