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本日英文文章

任何人都沒辦法預測股票與債券價格在未來數天或數周內的走勢。然而，預測這些價格的長期趨勢，例如三到五年，是相當有可能的。

-2013 諾貝爾經濟學獎新聞稿

There is no way to predict the price of stocks and bonds over the next few days or weeks. But it is quite possible to foresee the broad course of these prices over longer periods, such as the next three to five years.

-The Prize in Economic Sciences 2013 Press Release

如果預測數日或數周後的資產價格不可能，預測數年後的價格不是更難？錯。Robert Shiller 在 80 年代早期就發現，股價的波動遠比股利來得大，也就是如果股價/股利的比率（Price/Dividend Ratio）偏高，代表股價傾向下跌；如果這個比率偏低，股價則會上漲。而且這個型態不只在股票上發生，在債券與其他資產上也是一樣。

-2013諾貝爾經濟學獎新聞稿

If prices are nearly impossible to predict over days or weeks, then shouldn’t they be even harder to predict over several years? The answer is no, as Robert Shiller discovered in the early 1980s. He found that stock prices fluctuate much more than corporate dividends, and that the ratio of prices to dividends tends to fall when it is high, and to increase when it is low. This pattern holds not only for stocks, but also for bonds and other assets.

-The Prize in Economic Sciences 2013 Press Release



「傳統上房地產不是個很棒的投資，因為（房屋）需要維護、會折舊、會退流行，而且建築技術日新月異，新的房子總是比較好。」

"Housing traditionally is not viewed as a great investment. It takes maintenance, it depreciates, it goes out of style. All of those are problems. And there’s technical progress in housing. So, new ones are better."


「那為何買房子會被當成投資呢？這只是一個 2000 年開始的風潮，我不認為會持續下去。至少不會是相同的強度。人們可能會決定『嗯哼，我要來分散我的投資組合，租個房子來住吧』。對大多數人來說，這是合理的策略。」

“So, why was it considered an investment? That was a fad. That was an idea that took hold in the early 2000′s. And I don’t expect it to come back. Not with the same force. So people might just decide, “Yeah, I’ll diversify my portfolio. I’ll live in a rental." That is a very sensible thing for many people to do."